A study published in 2018 shows a threshold where temperatures could rise to 4 or 5 degrees (ambiguous expression, continuity would be “4-5 degrees Celsius”) compared to pre-industrial levels, compared to pre-industrial levels, thanks to returns of self-amplitude in the climate system, indicating that this threshold is below the 2-degree temperature target agreed in the Paris climate agreement. Study author Katherine Richardson points out: “We find that in its history, the Earth has never had a nearly stable state, warmer than that of pre-industrial, and suggests that there is a significant risk that the system itself, because of all these other processes, will want to continue warming, even if we stop emissions. This means not only reducing emissions, but much more. [96] According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), temperatures are expected to rise by 3.2 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century, based solely on the current climate commitments of the Paris Agreement. To limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius, annual emissions must be below 25 Gigaton (Gt) by 2030. With the current commitments of November 2019, emissions by 2030 will be 56 Gt CO2e, twice the environmental target. To limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius, an annual reduction in emissions of 7.6% is needed between 2020 and 2030. The four main emitters (China, the United States, the EU-27 and India) have contributed more than 55% of total emissions over the past decade, excluding emissions due to land use changes such as deforestation. China`s emissions increased by 1.6% in 2018 to a peak of 13.7 Gt CO2 equivalent. U.S. emissions account for 13% of global emissions and emissions have increased by 2.5% in 2018.

EU emissions, which account for 8.5% of global emissions, have fallen by 1% per year over the past decade. Emissions fell by 1.3% in 2018. In 2018, 7% of India`s global emissions increased by 5.5%, but its per capita emissions are one of the lowest in the G20. [100] The EU`s national contribution to the Paris Agreement is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990, as part of its broader climate and energy framework by 2030. All the main EU legislation to achieve this goal has been adopted by the end of 2018. (a) to keep the global average temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to continue efforts to limit the increase in temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the potential to significantly reduce the risks and effects of climate change; Although the Paris Agreement has entered into force, its implementation has yet to be clarified by numerous enforcement decisions.